Milan's Restaurants and Retailers Face a Brutal Summer: What the Numbers Say and What to Do Now

Footfall in Milan's central retail and dining districts fell 11 percent in the last two weeks of June compared with the same fortnight in 2025, according to data compiled by Confcommercio Milano, the city's main traders' association. The culprit is a heatwave that has baked the Po Valley since mid-June, pushing afternoon temperatures past 38°C and driving consumers off the street and into air-conditioned malls or, increasingly, their own apartments. For bar and restaurant owners who depend on pavement trade, the timing could not be worse: July is supposed to be peak season.

The heat matters beyond simple discomfort. France recorded more than 2,000 excess deaths during the peak of the current European heatwave, a figure that has alarmed public-health officials across the continent and prompted several Italian municipalities to issue midday outdoor-work restrictions. In Milan, the Comune activated its Piano Caldo emergency protocol on June 28, closing several public piazze to commercial activity between noon and 4 p.m. That four-hour shutdown directly eats into aperitivo revenue — historically the single most profitable daypart for Milanese bars.

Where the Pressure Points Are

On Via Paolo Sarpi, the artery cutting through Chinatown and one of Milan's most densely traded food streets, three restaurateurs said in separate conversations this week that their lunchtime covers were down roughly a quarter on last year. The Via Tortona design district, which saw enormous traffic during April's Salone del Mobile, has gone quiet. Meanwhile, the Mercato Metropolitano food hall in the Porta Genova area is reporting steady numbers — its indoor, climate-controlled format is proving a structural advantage, not just a novelty.

Delivery platforms are filling part of the gap. Glovo and Deliveroo both confirmed to trade publication Italia a Tavola this week that order volumes in the Milan metropolitan area were up 18 percent year-on-year in June 2026, a jump they attribute partly to heat-averse consumers and partly to continued post-pandemic normalisation of delivery habits. The margin problem is unchanged: operators typically surrender between 25 and 30 percent of the ticket price to platforms, making delivery profitable only at scale or on high-ticket items.

Input costs remain the other vice squeezing margins. Olive oil, still recovering from consecutive poor harvests in southern Italy and Spain, is trading at roughly €9 per litre wholesale in Lombardy — more than double the 2022 price. Robusta coffee beans used by many mid-market bars are up 34 percent since January, driven by drought conditions in Vietnam and a weak euro against the dollar. Ristorante Berton, one of several Michelin-starred venues on the Isola neighbourhood's northern fringe, moved to a revised prix-fixe menu structure in May specifically to smooth cost volatility. Smaller operators lack that flexibility.

What Operators Need to Do Before August

The businesses holding up best share a few characteristics. Seasonal menu engineering — cutting dish count, rotating proteins based on weekly commodity prices — is the immediate recommendation from food consultancy Studio Cibario, which advises around 40 Lombard restaurant groups. Operators who locked in supplier contracts in March, when grain and dairy prices dipped briefly, are now cushioned. Those who didn't are buying at spot, and spot is expensive.

On the retail side, the Navigli canal district's boutique owners are reporting that tourist spend, while present, is skewing toward the €30-to-€70 impulse purchase rather than considered, higher-value buys. That trend aligns with broader European data showing that discretionary spend is being compressed by ongoing mortgage-rate pressure — the European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.25 percent at its June meeting, offering little relief for variable-rate borrowers.

The practical advice from Confcommercio Milano is blunt: operators should apply now for the Regione Lombardia's Bando Turismo Sostenibile fund, which closes August 15 and offers grants of up to €40,000 for businesses investing in energy efficiency or climate adaptation. Installing adequate cooling, extending evening trading hours, and redesigning menus for lower food cost percentages are not optional adjustments. This summer is a test run for conditions that will repeat, and intensify, in years to come.